Simplicity Theory says that interesting situations must appear abnormally simple.
This means that they are less complex (in the Kolmogorov sense) than expected.
This led me to define subjective probability as p = 2^{–U}, where U represents unexpectedness.
Please visit >>>>> www.simplicitytheory.science 
Exposé pour le centenaire de Claude Shannon à l’Institut Henri Poincaré.
Information, simplicité et pertinence. (in French) 

Talk at COGSCI 2015
Probability judgments rely on complexity assessments 